A sharp spike in the Federal Funds Rate
News of a failed Treasury auction, or news that Treasury rates have spiked
Overt talk of a US default by Asian or European bankers
Multiple (8+) simultaneous US bank failures on one Friday
Any large Northern Rock style bank runs in the US (with customers lined up on the streets)
A stock market drop of more than 1,200 points in one day
A large and sudden spike in inflation
Any suspension of US stock trading
Draconian new stock trading limits (for example any new "circuit breaker" rules, followed by news that the trading was halted because of the limits)
New restrictions on either precious metals purchasing reporting requirements
New limits on moving funds outside the US
Any large derivatives trading collapses.(Because of disappearing counterparties or illiquidity.)
News that hundreds of hedge funds are suspending redemptions
News that many Money Market funds are dropping below $1.00 Net Asset Value (NAV)
The US Dollar Index (USDI) dropping below 68 for more than one full week of trading.
Any sudden large interest rate moves by the FOMC. (Up or down.)
Gold spiking past $1,500 per ounce
News that any major western power is no longer accepting US Dollars in payment for key commodities
News that any major trading partners are no longer rolling over the majority of their US Treasury paper
A closed session of the full congress that lasts a full day or longer.
*Limits to withdraw amounts per day. This happened just one or two days before banks actually closed.
*Sudden inflation. A few weeks before, but careful, it only turned into hyper after banks closed.
*Rumors of default. Those had been going on for a while and that’s when we slowly started investing elsewhere and slowly moving the money out of the accounts.
*Limits to moving funds out of the country
*Limits to the transactions. At the end you could just withdraw like $250 per week, if you found an ATM with money. Otherwise you had to suffer the terrible lines at he bank.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Futures Trading Halted
After free-falling in trading before markets opened, dropping over 500 points futures trading was halted. Jim Rawles had a list of stuff he looks for to consider bugging out. FerFAL added a few as well. I can't find it so I'm re-printing without permission. Keep your eyes out for 2-3 items on this list. If you do see several of these items than assume the worst.