Thursday, August 20, 2009

Threat Assessment

I've been thinking (and writing) a lot lately about the government, politics, healthcare, etc. It's time for a threat re-assessment. Periodically you need to look at the threats out there in the world and make sure you are doing your best to plan for these threats, and make sure you and your family will be prepared for any of these catastrophes.

The way I am looking at things now, here is the list of "bad things" and the percentage chance they will be the "bad thing" if a "bad thing" does happen.

Economy 45%
Pandemic 10%
Solar Storm/EMP strike 10%
Hurricane 30%
Food Shortages 5%

First on the list for me is economic collapse. My preps in this area have gotten much better, but I still am short in regards to having hard currency at the house. Silver has been a bitch to find anywhere near the spot silver price. I have been saving, and I'm currently on my way to building up 6 months of cash for bills. That is a lot of cash, though. It seems that every time I get past a month's worth, something I've been wanting a really long time goes on sale. The most recent culprit was the vises I need for my woodworking bench. Ah well.

Hurricanes are a fact of life on the east coast. Just because we haven't had one for a few years doesn't mean squat. I'm within 60 miles of the cost, so any cat 3 or better storm can cause a lot of damage before it swings back out to sea. I have all the supplies I'd need for this disaster. This was the first thing I worried about way back when I started this journey, so I am the most prepared for it.

Next up is a Pandemic. It could be Swine flu or bird flu or who-knows-what. I'm not as concerned with this as some are. Avoiding human contact is quite easy for me. I did get some N95 masks before the prices shot up. which was good. I also bought several big bottles of the alcohol gel stuff at the dollar store. The hard part would be laying low while FEMA rounded everyone up. I seriously doubt the local fuzz would let me stay in my home. Regardless of my personal rights, In this scenario I fully expect LEO to forcibly try to take me to a FEMA camp if I'm found out. That would be bad. It's not like I'd be able to hide, as odds are they would go house to house to check for the dead. Of course while they are in there they will search the place top to bottom confiscating guns and such. I need to think about this some more and see if there is a way to keep the LEO's hands off of me, without a big confrontation.

We are in a low point in the Sun's natural cycle of solar activity. When the Fusion furnaces kick up again we will see a huge spike in the frequency and intensity of solar storms and CME's (Coronal Mass Ejections). Our antiquated power grid cannot handle a huge EMP pulse, so I fully expect weeks to months without power. The whole northeast corridor is flagged red on NASA's danger area for EMP strikes. So if this happens, I expect it to get real bad real fast.

There has been talk of food shortages. This wonky summer weather really has caused a lot of crops trouble. Even my small garden isn't a lush as it should be. The corn is at least 3 weeks off schedule, it started flowering the week I was on vacation. On the trip out no flowers, on the way back the fields were filled. I recall that usually happened in July. I'm not too concerned as long as I have a job I can make the cuts to buy food at the inflated prices, using my preps when the food riots and rationing breaks out. An unlikely scenario IMHO, so I've assigned it a low priority.

Finally we have a small chance of getting nuked. I think New York, LA, or Washington DC would be a higher-value target, but I'm no terrorist and have no clue what they have up their sleeves. But in this day and age, we need to think about suitcase nukes, dirty bombs, chemical or biological attacks. This is the weakest area of my preps, and I don't see it getting any better anytime soon.


Herbalpagan said...

Come out and join us for the Get Together this Saturday! Ed's giving a fantastic talk about EMP danger...and you can see the two vises i found for him at a yard sale! lol

Anonymous said...

Good post. I agree the economy is the highest risk. But I rank food shortages higher. Any blip in our system, distribution will halt. Also if #1 (economy) crashed, then I think food shortages go in hand b/c will become too expensive to eat.

I'm also concerned about an EMP. I read one second after... not a nice scenario. I'm in very urban area and would be in a world of hurt.

Western Mass. Man said...

Keep an eye on Bill next week.
I read in today's mullet wrap that the water temp in Maine is unusually high this year. 72 degs as reported.
I tried to check daily water temps on the Cape, but was unsuccessful.
Ocean City Maryland water temp was 88 degs. Plenty fuel for a Cat 4 storm projected to go right up the coast.