Johnny on the spot

Funny how I just posted about this subject yesterday, and lo and behold there is an article about how the mainstream media is not reporting the failing bond sales.

I wonder how fast the collapse of the dollar will happen once the news gets out to the stockbrokers that the game their playing is rigged. That the stock market is just legalized gambling.

Musings

I've been reading a lot of essays and writings by many different thinkers attempting to codify how I feel about Government, the nature of Man, and Freedom. One thing that is evident from my personal experiences over the last 20-ish years of adulthood is that the conservatives in America are reactionary. They never go on the offense, except for something cooked up in the religious right. Well I'm not religious, and we have separation of church and state for a reason.

But I digress. I'm not a conservative, never have been. I prefer to take the fight to the enemy, than to give up the initiative. I chose these words carefully. This is indeed a fight for the soul of America. The time for the slow slide into a socialist, planned economy is over. It was time to fight through the 60's and 70's. Now is the time to declare WAR.

I stumbled upon the three rules of compromise, as penned by Ayn Rand: (The Anatomy of Compromise, The Objectivist Newsletter, 1/1964 - emphasis hers)

1) In any conflict between two men (or two groups) who hold the same basic principles, it is the more consistent one who wins.

2) In any collaboration between two men (or two groups) who hold two different basic principles, it is the more evil or irrational who wins.

3) When opposite basic principles are clearly and openly defined, it works to the advantage of the rational side; when they are not clearly defined, but are hidden or evaded, it works to the advantage of the irrational side.

No wonder Obama has failed to provide the promised "transparency" he made when campaigning. Point #3 shows that when there is transparency in the motivations of the two parties then we, the people, will make the logical, and therefore more freedom-based choice. The two parties seek to muddy the water as much as possible with the ubiquitous sound byte, with buzzwords that stifle thought. Only with ever-pervading confusion have the Democrats and Republicans managed to keep we Americans asleep at the wheel.

Ayn goes on:

For instance, consider the conflict between the Republicans and Democrats (and within each party, the same conflict between the"conservatives" and the "liberals"). Since both parties hold altruism as their basic moral principal, both advocate a welfare state or mixed economy as their ultimate goal.

This was written in 1964! We now have the welfare state the Democrats always wanted, and the Republicans are still reacting rather than acting. We are now firmly entrenched as a welfare state. Through ACORN and other organizations, the liberals have managed to swell the ranks of the welfare-dependent, who as a voting block, are staunchly democratic in nature. We now have a growing percentage of the population that has no useable skills. It's sad, but true, that a subsistence farmer in India has better skills than some Americans. Sure, we have a better quality of life, but without the government tit they would starve, or revert to barbarism.

The bailouts are a dramatic slide towards a planned economy. I would rather gargle broken glass than have the inept, inefficient government plan my economy. And this is exactly what we are doing. Government intervention has never, ever helped the economy. In fact, the more the government screws around with the economy, the more regulations, controls, and laws need to be passed in order to "fix" the first meddling. Rinse and repeat for a century, and you have the bureaucratic mess we live in today.

The current state of affairs needs to be fixed. The cancer has to be cut out, so the body may live. I will NOT live in a statist-collectivist-alturistic state. I would die first.

Rising Concern

My ears have been alerted, not by a noise, but the absence of it. I haven't heard much about the oil prices going up, and therefore the "little old ladies" freezing to death. Usually at this time of year one of the Kennedy's is pushing for donations to his oil fund for the poor. But curiously, it's quiet.

I think things are a lot worse out there than usual, and there is a sort of conspiracy not to talk about the pink elephant in the corner. I've dropped the heat in my house to 55 when I'm not there, and only up to 60 when I am there. If you don't have one, get a programmable thermostat! The local oil mafia filled me up in June, and I still have about 1/2 a tank left. I'm not looking forward to filling it again, #2 heating fuel is about $3.75ish a gallon right now...

Back to the original point. I suspect the media is drawing public attention to the plight of "poor florida farmers" and away from the economy. Funny thing is, most citrus farming is done by large corporations, not families. So everyone line up and shed a tear because Tropicana might not make it's projected profit margin! Boo-fucking-hoo.

I'd laugh my ass off if this was another mini-ice age like there was in the 1800's. It did suck, and led to all kinds of human misery, but in this day and age, I would laugh my ass off. I should see if any of the casinos in vegas would take my action on which climate change nitwit would be tarred and feathered first?

On further thought it would suck for us. Oil and food prices would go up sharply. The question would be if panic would set in? Anyway, when I order my seeds, I should plan for another crappy growing season.

The first step in avoiding a trap is knowing of its existence. Beware the trap of the mind. Don't let people think for you, try to see through the boob-tube's influence. The second wave of mortgage collapses is coming, and we need to stay vigilant. Plan for a crappy growing season. From what I heard the upland game this year was scarce, odds are it will be bad next year too. So if you are planning for pheasants to get you through the fall, then be sure to have a plan B, and a plan C.

Well it looks like gold has shaken free of the artificial restraints. I read that we would see $1500 per troy ounce by January 1st, and I think we will see it. We also saw predictions of $2000 and $3000 and ounce, but I dismissed those out of hand. Gold's price has been artificially manipulated for a while now, of this I have no doubt. I'm not claiming the Illuminati are doing it to further their plans of galactic, inter-dimensional conquest of the left wing conspiracy or whatever. Just with the inflation we have with a fiat currency gold should have broken $1000 a while ago, and is now going to correct itself relative to the weak US dollar.

Speaking of a weak dollar, I'm now having to pay attention to what stuff costs. And my dollar doesn't go that far at all. Not that the prices have changed that much, it's the contents and packaging. For example, Lay's Salt and Vinegar potato chips used to go on sale for $.99 for a 7oz bag. Now they no longer make them in that size, all you can buy is a 12 oz "family size" for $2.99. Huh, three times the price for less than double the amount of product. And Lay's saves production costs using less packaging, etc. Not that it's Lay's gouging us to make a huge profit, their costs have gone up as well.

I've been noticing this all over the place in the grocery store. I fully expect this trend to continue as people, even my frugal butt, don't notice these sorts of things until money becomes such an issue. They are sheeple for a reason, contentedly browsing the pasture, oblivious to the wolf in the woods.

One good thing about being a prepper, is you tend to buy a lot of extra when on sale. I bought all kinds of italian sausage the other day, as it was $1.99 a package instead of the normal $3.99. Took it home, vacuum sealed it in the foodsaver and tossed it into the freezer. Like wise, I bought a ton of pre-cooked breakfast sausage for a $1 a package. Handy because I actually eat breakfast these days. For a quick meal I'll heat them up and eat them with pork 'n' beans.

Back to the economy. Shadowstats.com has the unemployment at 22% nationally. Almost one in four people are out of work. How come there is no rioting in the streets is beyond my comprehension. I've been hitting the pavement real hard looking for a job, but it seems that almost all the companies slowed down their hiring this quarter. All the phone calls I was getting have dried up. I still have a few irons in the fire, but I'm not hanging my hat on anything.

Talking with guys at the club, or neighbors, or random strangers when standing in line, I get a pervasive sense that people are trying to be hopeful, but there is doubt lurking in the shadows. Everyone, and I mean everyone I spoke to has a brother or sister, son or daughter, mom or dad that has been out of work for months. As a country, we can't take much more of this. Someone is going to have to keep paying for the family member out of work. What happens when there are two, or three people in the family out of work? How much more debt can they pile on?

Stores are already running their "black Friday" sales, in order to lure customers into them. I wonder if they are trying to get the cash they need to stay afloat, hoping to lure consumers to spend more on the holidays then they normally would?

There is so many strange things going on, and it's not adding up. Consumer and retailer behavior are out of sync, the government is playing doctor instead of focusing on the economy. It's like they see the economy as fixed, when obviously it isn't. Maybe they realize it cannot be fixed, so they are throwing the mother of all smoke and mirrors show to distract everyone from something they would really freak out about?

Growth! Ha!

So last quarter we had "growth" in the economy. All those who are drinking the magic "green shoots" kool-aid are screaming from the rooftops that we have seen the end of the recession.

The trouble is we are in a depression, not a recession. More importantly, the reason we saw a positive growth in the economy is rather simple. It's the government-funded Cash for Clunkers and the $8000 Tax rebate for first home purchases.

So when you boil it down, there really was no growth whatsoever. More smoke and mirrors, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. This is probably the last trick they have up their sleeves, and it's perfect timing. Our economy is ~70% consumer spending, and with the holiday travel, gift buying, so on and so forth, I expect to see "growth" for this quarter as well.

The sheep will buy it lock, stock, and barrel, but it's just the eye of the storm. The financial hurricane is still raging around us, but the sheep will chill out in the pasture and think everything is just ducky.

Do not be fooled. Watch the year to year and "seasonally adjusted" numbers for a real look at our economy. Notice with all the hoopla around the growth, no one is mentioning these numbers in the MSM? It's propaganda. It would be right at home in the pages of 1970's Pravda Newspaper.

I have job interviews scheduled, so I'm not going to get to Maine this week it looks like. I'll be putting the time here to good use. I've got a lot of items I'm going to sell through craigslist, even an older Jeep I was going to work on. Bill needs ammo for the FrankenFAL, so I'll load some up for him. I hate working on new military brass, removing the pocket primer crimp is a pain in the wrists. Although, I'm not goign to drop $300 for the Sinclair tool that's motorized!

2+2=5 (for very large instances of 2)

So we are in the midst of a Great Revival. The worst has past. Unemployment is a lagging factor, after all, and the consumer economy is beginning to boom once more.

But wait. Why are there so many homes for sale in my town? In the last month, 25 homes have gone up for sale, and that is just the ones I can see going to the market or to work every day. there is no way in a healthy environment that there are so many homes for sale. Most are not foreclosures, possibly families want to move up in size or retireees want to move down, but that's not all of them.

Please lock your trays and return your seats into a full, upright position. We are all in for a bumpy ride.

I have focused almost exclusively on an economic collapse at this point. My personal issues aside, the dollar's value is plummeting. China will only hold onto American toxic treasuries for so long. When China dumps them we get flushed down the shitter. Our economy collapses. I am prparing for this to happen as best I can. I'm looking for side work to make some extra coin. If I don't need the cash for the mortgage, then i can invest it into land, or silver. I am 99% certian the economy will collapse, I see it an inevitable. The trick is, what happens? Do we face a slow decline into oblivion, or do we face the Zombie Apocalypse? I hope it's not the latter.

On a personal note, I've done 13 phone interviews. I have second interviews with 3, and I bet another 1-2 more will ask me for second interviews. Two of the jobs involve a lot of travel bt pay well, the other is a dream work environment at a gaming company. Wish me luck.

Now get your self some silver to go with all that food and ammo!

So went Rome, so goes America

I am an amateur student of history. What we are living through these days has only one parallel in western civilization that I can see. That parallel is the Fall of Rome. Now Rome didn't exactly fall, so much as split into two Empires then crumble a quake a lot before melting away. There are valid arguments on both sides of the crash vs. slow decline when discussing both Rome and America. Until we actually have survived it we might have an answer. For now, let's all assume that either case is likely.

So let's see what Rome was like at the end of the 5th century AD.

There was a vast disassociation between the aristocracy and the Plebians (citizens). The ruling families that actually had a chance to be elected to the senate or maneuver themselves into the Throne were in their own world. Does this have a modern counterpart? Try to imagine the top 5% of either party having any sort of commonality with a middle-income or low-income American!

During the 2nd through 5th centuries, the military became more and more integrated, eventually resulting in a large portion of the Legions soldiers coming from German lands. This "Germanization" of the military was touted as one of the main causes for the fall of Roman Empire. Like Rome, the American military is a great way for someone to earn citizenship. At the end of the Empire, almost all of the Legions were "Barbarian." We are no where near that many foreigners in our military, but it is a trend worth noting. Another interesting tidbit is the Empire relied more and more on Mercenaries for their army. How many "defense Contractors" are employed in Iraq and Afghanistan? Another troubling trend is how street gangs join the military for training to use on the street.

There were many, many Barbarian invasions towards the end of Rome. Not to call the Latino Hordes 'Barbarians" but we have no border security. America is rapidly losing it's cohesive identity. Rome suffered similar problems. As the Huns pushed from Mongolia on the Eastern side, the Western borders let loose millions of immigrants into Rome. The Goths, Germanic Tribes. etc all made their homes inside the Empire. Like our immigration problem, these ancient immigrants did not mesh with the Roman Empire for many generations, weakening the bonds of community.

When the waves of immigrants from Europe came over they all learned English. Italian or German immigrants, it didn't matter. But now we have whole swaths of cities and whole regions of the country that do not speak, nor do they intend on learning English. Without a common language, it takes generations to intermix and fully identify yourself and your family as "American." From Cambodian neighborhoods in Lowell, to the Portuguese of Fall River, to the Cape Verdians in Dorchester, to the Brazilians in Sandwich, the many "Chinatowns" in major cities, or most of the southwest of the United States - no one will learn English.

How can we build a community if everyone acts like they are back home? I'm a New Englander, through and through. How many friends would I have if I kept talking and acting like one if I moved to Georgia? That's in the same country, and I'd be an outcast! now multiply that times many thousands. Until we integrate with a common language then we will continue to fracture like the Roman Empire.

Economic theories abound as well. Rome didn't produce many goods. The reliance on importing almost everything, along with the shortage of precious metals is another major contributing factor. Rome needed the metals to mint currency. As the available supplies of metals dropped, they used less and less silver and gold in their coins, which created inflation. For a modern equivalent, our inflation rate over the last decade was averaging above 5%. Like Rome, we don't export much anymore. With the exception of Debt, that is.

A more shocking economic parallel is that of the marginal farmer. In Modern terms think of these guys as small businessmen. The Senate needed to make more money, and Rome didn't have exports, so they raised taxes. Eventually, they raised taxes to the point that the marginal land couldn't be farmed except at a loss, so these farmers abandoned they lands and moved into the cities to eek out a living. Most could not. The Senate thought that the State needed to provide for those too poor to eat with a dole, very much like the American welfare and unemployment systems. How did they pay for these programs? By taxing those farmers who managed to stick to it, of course. Just like today, the Progressives in power make everyone else pay for these programs, while they use every loophole to get out of tier share of the burden.

The writing is on the wall for all to see. Unless there is a return to common sense in government, where the minority doesn't dictate to the majority. then we are a failed state that hasn't gotten around to falling flat on it's face.

There is some debate wether or not this Nation can be saved. I personally feel that it can, but it would require self sacrifice from every citizen. Tough love to those abusing the system. Addiction counseling for the debt-addicts of wall-street and middle America. This pervading sense of entitlement would need to be curtailed, sometimes forcibly. We would all have to be Americans, Americans without hyphens.

The Dying of Massachusetts.

I saw a billboard on the ride into work today that stated that $1750 leaves Massachusetts every minute. I didn't get a chance to write down the URL they had under the billboard. Obviously, there is something in Massachusetts that is driving businesses and the wealthy somewhere else.

It turns out that when asked, business leaders rank California, New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey as the worst places to do business. Citing high taxes and anti-business legislation these business leaders have opened up shop in friendlier states.

Business is the key to a healthy economy. I'm no economist, I'm no great thinker, but common sense dictates to me that there is a synergy between the government, the workforce, and the business that has to fit together for a healthy economy.

The government needs to ensure a fair set of rules and boundaries for businesses to operate in. Impartial courts to settle disputes between businesses, between workers and business and between government and business. The government needs to ensure there is a level playing field for all businesses to have an equal opportunity. Likewise, a business can't use unfair practices to stifle competition, becoming a monopoly. Likewise, there is a framework of rules for business to operate - they cannot be allowed to dump toxic waste into a river, or deforest land so the topsoil erodes away.

Businesses are slaved to supply and demand. They make a product and pay for the raw materials and labor according to supply and demand. Then, they sell thier product slaved to supply and demand. They are taxed on profits to pay for the government.

The workforce has it the easiest. They get paid salary and benefits to work for a business. They then spend thier wages to businesses for food, clothing, entertainment, etc. They are also taxed to pay for the government as well.

Now in Mass, the cost of doing business is higher than in other states. So if your a painting contractor it's not that big a deal. It's not like you are going to pack up your business to go to a different state every time new laws are passed that impact you. But you might.

If your a business that has a great new idea for a product, and have capital backing you via bonds or a stock sale, and you are looking for a location to build a factory, then Massachusetts is towards the bottom of your list. If you have been in business making goods for years and shipping them across the country, and Mass passes a bunch of laws that cost you more profit to stay in business here, then it might be worth closing the Massachusetts factory and building a new one in Colorado. The cost of the new factory is offset by cheaper taxes, and increased efficiency in your new factory. Massachusetts, which depends on business and employed workers for money is the loser, along with the workers in Massachusetts.

To me, it's not hard to get this balance right. But then again, I hold the view that a minimalist government is all we need. Business and industry are what makes a country prosperous. France is the perfect example, with 53%+ of its population employed by the government. In a good economy they lag way behind in thier GDP as they don't really make much to export. In a recession, however, they don't suffer as badly because they print money to pay thier workers. In the end, though, the bill comes due and thier worthless fiat money can't feed anyone.

If America is to survive and prosper in the future, we need to recapture that innovative and frontier spirit that is being drowned under the tide of cheap, Chinese goods. We need to rise up and seize opportunity when it knocks, not milk the system for what we are "entitled" to. We are not entitled to anything except life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. As an extension of the latter, we are entitled to an equal opportunity to make a fair wage. No wide-reaching government meddling in our health care. No taxation so others don't have to work.

The larger a system gets, the more waste it produces in an exponential amount to its size. The larger it gets, the more it wastes. Why does the government has to meddle with health care at all? Why does the government have to provide for retirement? If the Social Security administration was spun off into a private organization in the '70's then it would be showing a profit! Run it like a business, and get it out of the money-grubbing politician's hands. Likewise, if medicare and medicaid were made into private health insurance companies, wouldn't they be healthy enough to survive?

This is why Massachusetts is a failing state. With the current progressive mind set of anti-business, pro-freeloader, there can be no change for the better. Without a fundamental change to bring business into Massachusetts, then the government will need to increase taxes on the workers to pay for the spending programs. Then the migration of talent will escalate, as I can assure you it has already begun in earnest. Eventually all that will be left are the refuse of society, the Leeches, and thier political masters.

Minimum wage

Right now I am very concerned with the unemployment numbers. About 125,000 people enter the workforce a month. These first-time employees don't make it into the unemployment rolls until they get a job, then lose it. We are at 21% unemployment, with no signs of that number turning around. the MSM would love for us to drink the "Kool-Aid of Hope" and believe that only loosing 500,000 jobs a month is improvement.

The Great depression saw unemployment rates of 25%. We are only 4 points away. But yet I am surprised at the lack of crime and lawlessness that I thought 20% unemployment would bring. Maybe it's because I have zero faith in humanity I got this wrong. Or the quality crime investigation or medical dramas that currently fill out airwaves have keep the screaming horde at docile.

I then see all over the news that the minimum wage was raised $.70 an hour. I was speechless, which for me takes a lot. This is such a colossally bad idea that I cannot come up with a euphemism to describe just how bad it is.

Let's take a look at a fictional company that assembles widgets. It has a workforce of 100 people. The workers have a fixed raise of .25 an hour every quarter for the first year. After that it's all merit based, or via promotions to line supervisor, etc. Assume for this argument that these people are not unionized.

Now this raise happens, and 50% of his workforce just got bumped .70 and hour. If I've been there 9 months, I'm only getting .15 an hour more than some noobie off of the street. The company now has about $275/hour in higher expenses from the pay raise, before they give longer term employees raises to keep thier pay in line with thier length of service. (it would be $350 an hour if they were all minimum wage, but assume some were there for 3 months.)

It's far cheaper to force overtime on people than to hire new employees. You don't need to train them, they don't earn additional vacation time or sick days. The social security and unemployment insurance the company pays per employee is saved as well. It's a no brainer.

So this fictional company fires 25 people, and makes the rest work overtime and actually makes more profit. Good job Congress, way to fuck over your green shoots!

This fictional example is based on real life. When I was in high school they raised the minimum wage and this is exactly what happened where I worked. The last thing a government needs to do is penalize small business form hiring employees. This will hamstring your economic recovery, and cripple the largest employers in America - Small Business Owners.

Breaking point?

I had lunch with a good friend yesterday. Well, it was breakfast for me because I worked all night again, but that's a whole 'nother rant. He's a smart guy, and has a young daughter and a wife that's in the medical field.

At one point we were discussing the economy, health care bill, etc and he asked a very pointiant question. What is the tipping point? New Yorkers who make over $225k are going to be paying 57% taxes? At what point does the word revolution creep in?

I was listening to WEEI this morning with the interview of Larry Lucchino, and the hosts were asking him what percentage would Larry be willing to be taxed at by Obama? He declined to answer, but they penciled him in for 80%.

The WEEI morning show are two republican neo-cons. Gerry Callahan is one of those neo-cons who thinks anyone who disagrees with him is a moon-bat liberal. Larry Lucchino is one of the owners of the Boston Red Sox and is as liberal as it gets.

The point is there is definitely a line in the sand somewhere. The way we are taxed now is hard to see whether that's because we turn a blind eye, or because we are unable to consciously perceive it. I'm taxed at 33% or thereabouts in straight income tax. If I added property, gasoline, utilities, sales, etc I'm over 50% easily. Now if my income tax is 57% like those New Yorkers, what's the real tax rate? 70%? 75%? That is flat out insane.

Every chance I get I try to inform anyone who is having a political discussion with me on their REAL tax rate. It's my own personal policy of sedition.

I'm flabbergasted at the political pace Obama is moving at. At his rate he's going to have to start holding meetings while he's on the hopper. He's already "saved the economy" and now he's ramming through this health care bill, and he's got the whole cap & trade thing to save mother earth (and tax business more).

Notice he's slacking on the bigger things though. Israel and Iran are about to have a steel cage match. North Korea are being nitwits again. We are still fighting a "Global War on Terror", an extended military operation in Afghanistan, and we still have a counter-insurgency and pacification operation going on in Iraq.

Notice how no one is chatting about the "war on terror" anymore. Notice Obammy isn't saying shit anymore about an exit strategy from either Iraq or Afghanistan. We would need those troops there to launch another invasion and pacification war in Iran. For all his talk of change, now that he's in the big-boy chair it's more of the same shit.

What is the tipping point? Is it his failing promise to close Gitmo? The additional taxes imposed by this forced healthcare insurance? Israel nuking the bejesus out of Iran in a preemptive strike? North Korea invading South Korea? The published unemployment numbers crossing 10%? What will finally be the last straw that Americans take?

Bumbling Bearer Bonds

The MSM completely missed that $130 Billion of US issued bearer bonds were attempted to be smuggled across the Italian/Swiss border. The bonds were in a suitcase with a false bottom.

Read this Bloomberg.com article. And this article on market-ticker.

German media is now reporting the bonds are real. Now I wasn't 100% sure about what exactly a bearer bond was, excpet my knowledge from Die Hard, so I wanted to bone up on it with Wikipedia.

According to the US treasury, there is only $105 million remaining of these bonds.
Now with all the zeroes we could get confused, but $130B is a fuckload more than the $105 million left, according to the treasury. So what's up?

Either the bonds are real, and the US treasury is lying to us, and all the countries buying our debt, or the bonds are fake, and they almost pulled off a real big caper. But wait a second... Bearer bonds are SERIALIZED, so you can bet your first born child that whoever is going to pony up that much cash for a bond is going to make DAMN sure it's real.

So I'm leaning towards they are real. Which should scare the shit out of everyone.That means the US treasury has been printing bonds without the knowledge of the American people and selling it. The money raised with the bond sales was used for who-knows-what nefarious plans.

I fully expect that bloated toad Barney Frank to do nothing about it.

unemployment

So I saw an article on bloomberg.com that the job losses for last month were 12,000 less than projected. Gee, you think that the losses would lessen more considering we are losing 650k jobs a month!

It's common sense to me that if we have 6.66 million people collecting unemployment insurance that the numbers of initial job losses would slow down. That isn't the issue so much as no one is hiring! If 600k factory workers loose their jobs but are hired as UPS drivers... it sucks if your one of them but at least you got another job! With the current economy a job loss is a sentence of poverty as no company is hiring.

Where I work has had an on-again off-again hiring freeze for two years now. We are way understaffed and management just wants us to suck it up. Well working all the time means burnout, and I'm making mistakes I never would have in the past. I, and my fellow teammates, are just too tired to get it done right.

So the bigger question is what does this mean. I think this is definitive proof that there is active stock market manipulation going on. With sustained job losses of this magnitude there will be no recovery anywhere in the near future. The CBO estimates our budget deficit of 9.3T over the next 10 years. In 2009, it will be about 1.75T. Did I mention that is with an unemployment rate of 8.1%? Silly me, that number will skyrocket as our unemployment numbers will top 11%. those are the cooked numbers, not the real ones. Real numbers for unemployment is at 20%, courtesy of shadowstats.com.

There is no flipping way there are any "green shoots" or any of that other malarkey. This bear market is just a false rally that is trying to suck in whatever fools money they can. Do NOT invest one cent in the stock market. Buy tangibles! Fill up your heating oil tank now, buy precious metals. Buy land, livestock and farm equipment. With the gun-grabbers in power it might be a good idea to buy additional firearms just to sell them later. If I wasn't in the shit at my job I would. I was about to buy a popgun(ar-15 clone) and 200 rounds of ammo to sell it years later at a slight profit (inflation, don'tcha know). But there went that idea.

Buy tangibles. Buy food, water, medicine, heirloom seeds, etc.

We ain't out of the woods yet.

I've been doing a fair amount of reading, and I'm still trying to put all this information together to see just what the hell is going on.

The dollar is being propped up because int he current global credit crisis there just isn't anywhere else to stash your cash. These investors are switching to the short term bonds, because they are drinking the "everything will be all fixed soon" kool-aid. This has caused a bubble in the bonds market. No one in their right ind is going to invest in a 30 year T-bill when the interest rate is only 3.65%! That is equal to the official interest rate, which means a net loss of ~3% for the real interest rate!

When the bonds bubble pops, and it is giving every indication it will as China is bailing out of long-term American debt, then investors foreign and domestic will have nowhere left to put their money except physical resources. Gold, silver, oil, etc. That's what China is doing with some secret reserve fund. They are keeping two sets of books. One for the world, and the real books for themselves.

But Wait! You say, "Wouldn't every alarm bell go off if China dumped their dollar based assets?" And you would be right if they just opened the floodgates. The Chinese government is dumping their assets by purchasing resources with the dollar assets from the secret fund, so the world is none the wiser.

China needs oil bad, so you can expect them to buy a lot, driving the price up. I read somewhere else OPEC cut production some, and the world let their oil reserves dwindle when it was at $150/barrel. Now these stocks are low so you can expect record gas prices as China loads up on oil and other governments buy more to fill up their reserves. In other words buy your gas preps NOW. I'll be adding another 10-25 gallons, myself.

I'm not smart enough to figure out exactly what will happen when the bonds market collapses. It makes sense to me that when the bonds bubble pops every investor will be scrambling to dump their bonds, along with every country that owns US debt. The results of this scenario is the collapse of the US economy.

The blogs have been very, very quiet of late. I envision Mayberry, Michael, etc. frantically getting the last of their preps done before the balloon goes up. Not time for blogging, got to load magazines! Even my posts have dropped in frequency. It's getting tough to write posts because between the economy and politics we have a target-rich environment! It's just too damn easy to bitch and moan about all the stuff going on.

Now is the time for action. I got my tomato plants spouted, I am pleased as punch about that. The peppers haven't spouted yet, but that's no biggie. The onions will be in the ground soon, along with the cabbage plant which looks to make a full recovery. I loaded 50 LRN .45 ACP rounds the other day, I need to load up another 150. I also need to load up a box of JHP I bought.

I need to get cracking on the story, been way, way to busy at work. At home my time has been buried with preps and cleaning up the house. Time is so fleeting when you spend 3 hours a day in a car going back and forth to work. Hope everyone has a great weekend. Keep prepping!

Great video about the economy

This is a well put-together video explaining the whole financial mess in easy to understand terms. I strongly recommend you send this around to anyone and everyone so the masses can get educated on how greed is the root cause of the whole problem.

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

American ADD

By and large we Americans are suffering from ADD. Attention Deficit Disorder. The Democrats are trying to draw our attention away from the economy to worry about Rush Limbaugh. Here is a news flash for the Democrats, over to Cindy, our political corespondent in Natog's Sekret Bunker:

"Hi everyone this is Cindy! Tee-Hee! Here in Natog's Sekret Bunker the air is tense with anticipation with the latest attempt to distract the prepper community. The democrats are using a row with Rudh Limbaugh to draw attention away from the ongoing use of the economy to socialize the United States. Natog is reading the web now, let's check in!"

"It looks like bad news, Natog didn't even open the article."

"Natog, a moment of your time, sir!"

Grunt.

"Ah, Yes, I want to get your reaction on the Obama vs. Rush debate, if I may?"

"Hmmm Let me see Cindy. I don't give a FUCK."

"Um, ok. I hope they caught that back in the van, back to you in the studio. This is Cindy reporting live from Natog's Sekret Bunker."

Let's see what's more important? 600,000 more jobs gone, or a pile of nitwits trying to fuck each other? That's right another 600k jobs gone! Jumping Jesus on a pogo stick! Rush could be caught in Provincetown with a dick in the mouth and a hamster up his ass and I couldn't give a shit after eating a box of bran muffins.

Citigroup's shares drop below a $1 a share. They should be delisted from the NYSE, but they changed the rules a while ago so they can stay on there. Like we expect banker to follow the rules. They can't. Not even their own rules.

No wonder the market's down 250ish points. Cracks me up. I wonder how many zombies are waking up? I mean they can't keep everyone distracted with pigs, dumbasses and ugly pussy, can they?

Back to my point. Americans have the attention span of a cat with a laser pointer in the room. Americans have no sense of time. Everything is in the now. Our craptastic school systems ensure our children have little to no sense of history. Without this sense of history, the past is just the ether of past fads and B rated stars of movies. Paris Hilton has ceased to exist. That pedophile piece of shit, Michael Jackson, is the future. Sad isn't it?

If I met Rush I'd tie him up and shit on his chest like Buddy Cianci did to the guy screwing his wife. I'm not mad enough to torture him for three days first, but nothing shows your displeasure like a Cleveland Steamer. Good thing I don't live in New York because I would have dropped my laundry and shit on wall street a long, long time ago.

Fear in DC and loathing in the PRM

Fear is a visceral thing. Our ancestors cowered in caves with the fear of thunderstorms. We ran from wild beasts. this primordial emotion is used by politicians to evoke panic to press humanity into doing something, for lack of a better term, stupid.

I took some bashing in the comments section of an earlier post about how I don't particularly like the President of the United States to use fear to get what he wants. I'm not the only one to think this way.

In addressing this panic, the president of the United States must truly be the leader of the world — showing the way back to confidence.

Instead, Obama has been instrumental in purveying fear and spreading doubt. It is his pronouncements, reinforced by the developments they kindle and catalyze, that are destroying good businesses, bankrupting responsible people and wiping out even conservative financial institutions. Every time he speaks, he sends the markets down and stocks crashing. He doesn’t seem to realize that the rest of the world takes its cue from him. He forgets that he stands at the epicenter of power, not on the fringes campaigning for office. This ain’t Iowa.

Why does Obama preach gloom and doom? Because he is so anxious to cram through every last spending bill, tax increase on the so-called rich, new government regulation, and expansion of healthcare entitlement that he must preserve the atmosphere of crisis as a political necessity. Only by keeping us in a state of panic can he induce us to vote for trillion-dollar deficits and spending packages that send our national debt soaring.

This is the most media savvy President we have ever seen. Slick Willy has nothing on this cat. He has manipulated public opinion with a masters touch. His relentless campaign was nearly divine in how it whipped up the disenfranchised, the poor, and the rich liberals into a political firestorm to get him elected. Do don't think for one second that his is not fully cognizant of his emotional message. Obama and his staff know exactly what they are doing.

I wonder if he is vain enough to sow all this panic, all this doom and gloom just so if he pulls this off he looks like the greatest president since Lincoln? Then again, he wrote his memoirs before he took office.

If his plan is to sow chaos to make himself look better, then I fear he vastly underestimated how fragile the world markets are. Ireland, Greece, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Hungary, etc are all within a hairs breadth of going tits-up. Once these dominoes start to fall, I think it's not going to stop until it's gone around the world a few times.

So to sum up my feelings for the use of fear and chaos to motivate the people of these United States:

Fuck you, Mr. President.

Trouble in Russia

Check this out. Russia's two markets halted trading for an hour each yesterday. I just caught wind of it this morning. Word is the markets opened today with a 5% slide, I wonder if trading will halt again today.

This is bad. If Russia tanks then China and the remnants of the Warsaw Pact could be affected. Most of Austria, Czechoslovakia, whatever Yugoslavia is called these days, etc. are all in a death spiral right now, and might take the EU with them.

So it's not just us. Or is it?

Massachusetts is filled with Mill Towns. These cities were industrial complexes unto themselves producing textiles and shoes for the whole world in the late 19th century. We were then what China is today. Lots of resources and cheap labor to fuel Europe. But something happened, other places were more economical to produce products, so the mills closed. ALL of them. What crippled these towns is that the entire town was specialized in the production of one commodity.

When that commodity no longer was profitable, then business closed up shop and went somewhere else. Because the entire city's livelihood depended on this series of factories, unemployment skyrocketed along with crime, urban sprawl, and all the other bad things that come with cities in decline. Some cities have yet to recover. Lowell and New Bedford are prime examples along with Pawtucket, RI and Flint, MI.

So what does all this have to do with the price of child labor in Malaya? Well, everything. America sells debt. I mean when you boil it down that's what we sell. yeah we make planes and we sell ideas and services, but our #1 export or the last 20 years has been debt. Now 90%+ of economy is based on debt. So what happens when we cannot sell our debt? Just like a mill town our unemployment skyrockets, and we are a nation in decline.

But the whole world bought into this as well. Unlike a shoe, oil, or wheat, debt has no intrinsic value. So other countries cannot sell their product at a loss to recoup some of the lost money. They are stuck to us like Br'er Rabbit to the Tar Baby. So down the drain we all go.

What can we learn from this? Small business is better business. Communities need to diversify. America needs agricultural, manufacturing, and service-orientated sectors of the economy in a roughly balanced arrangement. For those that are in survival communities already, don't bet the farm on one item being of value post-crash. Grow extra food, and provide timber, and provide services to prosper. Don't put your eggs all in one basket.

Woo! Socialism!

Ok so I pay my mortgage by eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for two months, and those nitwits who are living on credit cards in houses they cannot afford get a handout. This disgusts me.

Earlier plans had the Fed working with banks to lower payments by adjusting interest rates or lengthening the term of the loan. That I can agree with. So Joe Sixpack who bought a McMansion has a 50 year loan on it now. The banks get their money (eventually) and no taxpayer money is spent.

But now the Socialism kicks in. Joe Sixpack gets a big fat handout instead of an adjustment. And where is the money coming from? It's a inflationary tax. They tax us by making our money worth less because they are just making more of it. A $50 billion dollar handout.

Once again stupidity is rewarded. The banks that make billion dollar mistakes get money from the Fed for nothing. Those banks that were financially responsible got nothing. Now homeowners that didn't think if they could afford the house are being rewarded. People like me who kill themselves to make payments get nothing.

To me socialism rewards the stupid. Have too many kids, enjoy welfare! Can't hold down a job or better yourself to keep the job you have, then you get unemployment insurance extension after extension.

Someone needs to fill in these bleeding heart liberal nitwits that life is not fair. You get hooked on drugs then you die. Have too many kids you go hungry. Too dumb to have health insurance then you stay sick. Stop making me pay for your programs. I got enough to worry about without paying so illegal immigrants can get licenses to drive and free health care. Fuck 'em I say.

I can't be bothered to reward stupidity. Praise your puppy every time he shits or pisses in the house and see what that gets you. Same thing here.

I've been letting the news about the recent stimulus bill wash over me the last few days. I'm trying desperately to remain optimistic about the whole thing, but the crushing reality of just how bad a blanket party the politicians threw us. Make no bones about it, the stimulus package is about as economically stimulating as a fart in hurricane. There's so little in there to actually do anything that it's absurd to call it a stimulus package. It's a fucking spending package.

Hey everyone if we buy up all the bridges around the world, then we will get as much affect on our economy as this "stimulus" package. Berneke is intent on inflating us out of a depression, tilting at windmills, er, spending billion upon billions of $ on pork is just the ticket to do it. I fail to see why a market correction needs to be avoided at all costs? It's a natural process in a healthy, mature, free market.

But our betters insist we can't let the boogymen of depression take hold. Let me be the the voice of reason here.

Hey Chuckleheads! We are in a depression already!

Now that our betters have been properly informed of our current economic situation, you can be sure they are on the ball. Yeah, right! I could go down to D.C. and tattoo it on their foreheads backwards and they still won't get it.
I think Amy Winehouse should be the mascot for the American economy. It's a train wreck you just can't take your eyes off of. Like Amy, our economy had so much potential, and just pissed it all away. If you have never heard her sing, your missing something. I'm not a big fan of her style, but the quality of her voice cannot be disputed. Granted, now she sounds like shit after smoking a couple a packs a day for the last few years.

So what's next for the Amy Winehouse economy? My bet is they sell themselves out to someone for a rock of crack, take half a dozen reds with a bottle of wine in a "cry for help", shit themselves in public, and puke on the paramedics that come to help her, I mean us. Wonder what Vegas will give me for odds?

Well I have been entirely too busy. I've been getting my ass kicked at work, I'm just glad I'm in a (mostly) recession-proof job. Saturday, I had to help a friend move two rooms of furniture around so they can sell their house. Sunday I had to help my Mum and brother move furniture, and work on a clients computer. At least I got $40 I can put towards preps from working on that computer.

I have been slacking off a little last week on posts, and for that I apologize. Work has me going 90mph so last thing I want to do once I get done with working from home after dinner is to work on the computer, even for something as enjoyable as this blog.

Today's post is about the economy. BHO shoved that 800T bailout through congress with the help of Frau Pelosi. Many bloggers have gone over the pork in the bill, and I ranted and raved about it while swearing up a storm trying to move a 300# bureau around. I just don't have the energy right now to get good and pissed off again. I have been watching a number of interesting items, trying to get a picture of what I have for a time window to get prepared.

I did some reading at itulip.com and found this gem.
Some brilliant bean counter figured out that if you factor in inflation the DJIA only gains 1.64% per year. That's the red line in the graph above. The blue line is the inflation-adjusted numbers for the DOW. So hitting 11,000 in '94 is not the same as hitting 11,000 in '04. The article goes into good detail, and links the original source. So our current DOW of 7905 is really a lot worse than that.

The next thing I'd like to talk about is the BDI or Baltic Dry Index. This measures how much overseas freight is shipping.
The items measured are bulk items like coal, grains, crude oil, ore, building materials, etc. Notice all shipping has plummeted. Current BDI index is equal to what it was in '02, just before the housing boom exploded. This is alarming because if nothing is shipping, then nothing is being built. Construction companies and other goods manufactures depend on the goods represented by this index to build their product. With nothing to build, they close up shop, flooding the unemployment market.

This quote is from the Wikipedia article on the BDI.

On 20 May 2008 the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986.These low rates move dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews.
By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already increased by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of credit meant the reduction of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of future ship construction was also a problem for shipping companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications for shipyards.This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world's marine commerce.

So things are looking up from a shipping perspective, but it is riding along a razors edge of profitability. If there is no profit to be had, then the world's shippers are not going to ship it from the goodness of their hearts.


One bit of good news is that inflation has dropped significantly. It is still 8% inflation according to the original way it was computed before Regan changed the rules. Then Clinton really changed things and now the official government statistic is as useful as poop in your breakfast cereal.


One item on this chart that is interesting to me is the plummet has brought the official inflation to zero. What happens once it goes negative? Will the official CPI dropping to negative numbers be the cause for panic, bringing about the deflation they fear that will happen. I love to see lies bite their speakers in the ass, so I figure it's just desserts if the CPI lies cause the economy to freak out.

Another key item is unemployment.



We are climbing to almost 20% unemployment. Whoa. One in five people are out of a job and looking for work, or more work. This scares the shit out of me. Once spring comes all these unemployed people will have the time on their hands and be pissed off enough to start breaking into homes for what they feel they are entitled too.

When a disenfranchised population base have nothing to do but get into trouble. In the 60's it was mostly harmless shenanigans, but these days urban youth are a lot more violent than the hippies. Even the 70's punkers kept most of the violence to the mosh pits. With urban hip-hop and rap artists idolizing violence and "thugism" how can the urban youth of any ethnicity do anything but cause massive problems this summer?

Idle hands are the devils workshop, and there will be a large number of youth that will be unable to find work, along with an older population base that will be out of work as well. Compounding this problem is the Baby-Boomers who are not retiring because their nest eggs have withered away. Without these higher-end positions opening up, then the middle-aged don't climb up the corporate ladder, opening entry-level positions for recent graduates.

I also expect racial tensions to rise as whites feel affirmative action keeps them from getting jobs, while well-educated whites are targeted by minorities because those minorities don't have a perceived or actual access to those better-paying jobs. Meanwhile anger and resentment against illegal aliens to rise as they are taking positions from Americans. This is going to be very interesting come summertime.

After all this I still don't have a clue on what will happen and when. But I will prep on anyway. So should you.